The African continent’s next years might increasingly revolve around the United States and its actions.The sustained high commodity prices did not lead to wide-scale exploitation of resources in Africa, indicating that although the continent holds vast reserves of many resources, extracting them is still too costly to turn a profit. The problems that have plagued Africa in recent decades - poor infrastructure and the uncertain nature of political regimes—will continue to contribute to the lack of investment flowing into the continent. The notable exception to this rule will be oil and natural gas, especially in areas of potential offshore development, since transport infrastructure already exists and political stability can be better guaranteed by building operations on the water.
The world will continue to explore and drill for oil in countries such as Nigeria, Algeria, Libya and Angola. As world demand for oil and natural gas grows to near output capacity, tapping hard-to-reach quantities of oil located offshore in countries such as Mauritania, Equatorial Guinea, Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana will be increasingly economically attractive. Neighboring countries and ambitious entrepreneurs— possibly with Western powers’ silent backing—will take advantage of all opportunities to replace regimes in order to find the best deal possible for their newfound businesses (this was demonstrated in the recent plot to overthrow President Brig. Gen. [Ret.] Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo in Equatorial Guinea).
The U.S. military will continue building up military forces in several countries as part of its war on terrorism, as well as seeking out militants located in Africa to prevent them from using parts of Africa as safe havens, training grounds or staging grounds for attacks. However, as the war on terrorism comes to a gradual conclusion, U.S. strategic interest in this area will decrease substantially.
The tragedy of HIV/AIDS will continue to affect the continent significantly over the coming decade. The extremely high population growth rates found in most African countries will be sufficient to counteract deaths from HIV/AIDS in nearly all countries, with the exception of those countries in the south, including South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland, Zimbabwe and Botswana, where the infection rate is much higher.
The demographic effects of HIV/AIDS will be felt because a sizable portion of the population at the peak of its economically productive years has been infected. Assuming there is no cure or breakthrough in treatment or prevention methods, HIV/AIDS will add another drop into the bucket of most African countries’ problems of political and economic stability. In the southern African countries, where the demographic effects of HIV/AIDS will be strongest, unemployment rates hover between 35 percent and 75 percent, indicating there will be no shortage of available workers. South Africa will continue to be the pre-eminent economic power in sub-Saharan Africa, even after the HIV/AIDS-related losses are accounted for. South Africa’s GDP is more than 300 percent of the GDP of the second highest producer in sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria.
Even though South Africa will be one of the countries most directly affected by the problem of HIV/AIDS, its military might, political stability and economic dominance will allow it to move forward in pursuit of its strategic interests. South Africa will again attempt to broaden its influence in Africa over the next decade - a process it was forced to abandon in 1990 because of internal problems and international pressure. Though the apartheid governments should not be confused with the African National Congress regime currently in power, South African national interests are the same now as they were under apartheid. Now that many of the internal problems that impeded South Africa’s ascension to a true position of regional power have been resolved, South Africa will be able to begin the process of truly expanding its sphere of influence beyond its borders.
The first test of the country’s expansion abilities will be the coming disarray of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front in neighboring Zimbabwe. Although South Africa will not annex the country, it will use the instability as an opportunity to move military forces into the country to conduct peacekeeping operations and ensure the installation of a friendly government. South Africa will again act in its own national interest by continuing to fund infrastructure development in Zimbabwe and countries further north, since such development would be a means of exploiting the resources found there and would help secure South Africa’s border with Zimbabwe. South Africa will also jump on any similar opportunities presented in Mozambique and Botswana.
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