In P.1 and P.2 of this review we suggested in short, that al-Qaeda began as an organization, evolved into a network, and has become a diffuse ideological movement that spawns terrorist cells around the world. An extremist form of Islamist Salafism motivates the terrorists who enjoy considerable support and even wider sympathy in many Muslim countries. While most of them do not support terrorism, many people in the Islamist reform movement understand and even agree with at least some of al-Qaeda's ideological goals.
As is known bin Laden and those who share his views seek to remove "heretical" rulers in countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia as a prelude to their ultimate goal of reestablishing the Caliphate of the eighth century CEo AI-Qaeda targeted the United States only when the organization became convinced that it could not achieve its goals without forcing the United States out of the Middle East. We have been attacked not because we are the enemy but because we are in the way. Even moderate Islamists, however, oppose the Western secularism and 1/ decadence" that increasingly encroaches on their way of life through the Internet, satellite television, and McDonalds.
The nature of the contemporary terrorist threat as we suggested requires protecting vulnerabilities (antiterrorism), preparing to mitigate the effects of actual terrorist attacks (consequence management), and conducting offensive operations against the terrorists (counterterrorism). Given the impossibility of protecting all potential targets within a vast, open, and diverse society, antiterrorism must be based on sober risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. Consequence management should take an "all-hazards" response approach, increasing the ability of emergency responders and institutions to handle natural disasters, accidents, and terrorist incidents. Counterterrorism requires pursuing terrorists and attacking terrorist organizations and networks to wear them down in a long-haul campaign. This task falls primarily to law enforcement, Special Forces, and intelligence agencies.
However, seven years after al Qaeda’s deadly attacks on America of Sept. 11, the US intelligence community still lacks a coherent picture of the internal workings of al Qaeda’s vast terrorist machinery – although in some ways the terrorist organization is more open to penetration than before.
Tuesday, Feb. 5, the director of US national intelligence Mike McConnel said: “Al Qaeda is improving the last key aspects of its ability to attack the US – the identification, training and positioning of operatives for an attack in the homeland.”
McConnel reported “…an influx of new Western recruits into the tribal areas (of Pakistan )” since mid-2006. With plans to specifically target the White House, “al Qaeda has leveraged its broad external networks – including some reaching into Europe – in support of external operations,” according to the US intelligence director.
Overcoming serious debacles in Iraq and Saudi Arabia, al Qaeda affiliates are recruiting, and expanding into new fields of operation.
What McConnel described as “an influx of new Western recruits in the tribal areas since mid-2006” are mostly the young Muslims in North and East Africa and West Europe, both for local networks in those places -- especially West Europe -- and to bolster al Qaeda’s strength in Iraq and Pakistan.
Despite this vast infrastructure and its intercontinental spread, American intelligence and Western anti-terror agencies in general are still finding it almost impossible to obtain inside information on the cogs and levers of what we rather would like to refer to as ‘the al Qaeda syndrome.’
Should al Qaeda related groups decide to halt the flow of reinforcements to Afghanistan and Pakistan, for instance, and switch large numbers of new recruits to Iraq, the American officers managing the war against terror will not find out about these changes until they see the new arrivals. No organized flow of advance intelligence alerts are available for this.
'Western' intelligence agencies on fact work from fragments, gleaned by friendly intelligence services from interrogations of suspects and the intercepts of signals, satellite phone calls and coded messages transmitted over the Internet--some disguised behind images carried by websites belonging to unsuspecting Western companies.
But where does Mike McConnel get his information that al Qaeda is still aiming for the White House? This informationcomes from three sources:
One was mentioned by the US intelligence director Mike McConnel this week, when he said: “It [al Qaeda] probably will continue to devote some effort towards honoring bin Laden’s request in 2005 that al Qaeda attempt to strike the United States , affirmed publicly by current al Qaeda leader Abu Ayyub al-Masri in a November 2006 threat against the White House.”
Then there are the high-value al Qaeda captives in American custody, who over the years have insisted under interrogation that a repeat of 9/11 and additional attacks in the American homeland have never been taken off the terrorist organization’s operational agenda.But no hard facts were ever elicited on how such attacks were to be implemented. Any particulars received turned out to be incorrect.
The third source is the multifarious theological texts published on the organizations websites.These texts, which are not in general circulation, appear aimed at briefing network and cell commanders across the world on al Qaeda’s preparations for an attack on the United States .
The credibility of the information contained in these tracts is hard to establish – as is their purpose. Are they meant as morale-boosters for al Qaeda forces in the field, general guidelines for action by the networks, or a real-life plan of action building up toward implementation? No one can tell for sure.
A recent Internet text for example is dated the night of the 25th of the second month of the Hijra year 1428, which corresponds to May 13, 2007. And is signed by Abdul Abu Kandahar al Zarqawi [named for al Qaeda’s commander in Iraq ] and Siyalon bin Abdullah a-Salafi al-Shemi [for the Nations of the East].Both of course are made-up names, but the al Qaeda chiefs whom the operational content of the text concerns certainly know who is addressing them.
The writers affirm that the orders to attack the United States have already gone out and the attackers have reached their departure points - whether or not inside America is not specified – and await their last instructions from Osama bin Laden before setting out on their final journey.That instruction has not yet been issued [as of May, 2007].
If true however, this document states that the next (attempted) attack on American cities, especially New York, will be some kinds of radioactive substance (not a bomb), that contaminates the environment. The document translated from the Arabic reads as follow:
The operations are ready but we are awaiting orders from the Supreme Commander, Osama bin Laden. He will decide when to strike, what to hit and what not, and how long to wait.We shall pursue the following operations and bring about the fall of the United Atheistic States of America. A quality attack is planned for the big and the biggest towns of America and its economic centers. For some of these operations nuclear weapons will be used. It will be executed with the help of trucks which are undetectable. [DNW: A clue to American vehicles driven by terrorists capable of posing as authentic Americans].The operation will employ ruses and tactics that will astonish the Americans.
Because we already know that you [Americans]) take no notice of our warnings, we will be forced to carry out further operations without mercy, because you have brought destruction on your own heads by refusing a hudna (truce). [This is a reference to bin Laden’s offer to the Bush administration of a truce in an audiotape released Jan. 20, 2006 - provided US forces quit Iraq and Afghanistan .]All these blows will land on you [the American people] because of your support for the White House robbers and your concurrence in their deeds.In the first wave, five cities and one state will be struck.The first is New York , the United States ’ economic nerve center where Allah proved for the first time that He is with us. [9/11]
The second is Los Angeles , the most important West Coast city of the Atheistic Union.
The third is Florida , from which many funds reach the East Coast [the meaning is unclear] and which is the location of the Kennedy Space Center , which will also be struck.
We will of course not omit Washington.
The fall of the American capital into the hands of the mujaheddin will be one of the most important events of the New Era.
Seattle will be targeted as America ’s strategic center on the Canadian border; and Texas as the center of the big oil companies in which Bush, Cheney, Rice and Rumsfeld have stakes.
In consequence of these attacks, the American economy will collapse; death and permanent injuries will result from nuclear damage; the American people will lose faith in its government and its centers will break down.All this will lead to the evacuation of American forces from their places of deployment, because they will be needed to care for the desperately injured at home.Some may decide not to return to the United States but rather seek asylum in other countries.US military deployments will rapidly fall apart in their world bases, as officers and men come to blows, regular payments stop reaching the units and fuel supplies are no longer delivered to the army, air force, navy and armored units.Young Muslims will obey the dictates of Allah, which include the liberation of Muhammad’s Island from the rule of Ali Saud, liberation of the eastern bank of the Jordan River from the American family which rules there and great progress for beloved Palestine.
There are many scenarios related to WMD however, following examples are probably, the most discused ones.
The electromagnetic pulse (EMP): For example, an Iranian missile is fired from a barge in international waters, and detonates over Kansas at 300 miles altitude. The resulting EMP burns circuits in America's electric and communication networks. Within milliseconds, at least 70 percent of America's twin electrical infrastructures are destroyed. America is plunged instantaneously into the year 1875. Recovery takes many months, perhaps more than a year. Thousands of lives are lost, but not instantaneously. Trillions of dollars in market value disappear. Iran threatens to destroy 5 Arab and 5 European capitals if the US retaliates.
Nuclear weapons transferred to terrorists placed in shipping containers: America's largest harbors are targeted (6 - 8 ports). The nukes destroy the ports, and America loses two-thirds of its ship import capacity. With 90 percent of imports coming by ship, the result, besides massive loss of life, is economic devastation for many years. A group doing this would have to conceal origin, if possible, to minimize retaliation concerns. If there is no clear return address--a country we can target--retaliation is politically almost impossible, for risk of killing innocent millions.
The Unabomber scenario: A small group of co-conspirators develop a lethal super-pathogen with long latency, extreme contagion and high lethality. The pathogen is dispensed in airports around the world, infecting millions of passengers. After the latency period--long enough to enable the bug to spread to many millions of non-fliers--a pandemic results. A pandemic as lethal as the 1918 Spanish flu, which killed 20 million, would kill over 100 million today, based upon equivalent population percentage fatalities in a vastly more populous world.
These three examples, presume terrorist actors whose motivations are not rational (economic or political), but instead are extreme fanaticism of one sort or another.
Rather erring on the side of coution however, we would suggest that the average American is at no greater risk of dying in a terrorist attack today than he or she was on September 10, 2001. The U.S. is a vast, diverse country heavily dependent on technology, and with an extensive infrastructure. While they can take reasonable steps to lessen the risk of attacks and manage the consequences when they occur, the U.S. and other countries like England, France or/and Spain to take few examples--will never achieve absolute security. Offensive measures can reduce the extent and capabilities of terrorist organizations but not eliminate them. Risk and vulnerability are the price of living in a free and open society. We can face this unsettling truth and get on with our lives or become hostages to our own fears.
Update Febr. 8, 2007: Mullah Omar and other Taliban leaders are directing insurgency operations in Afghanistan from the Pakistani city of Quetta, while al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden is operating from Pakistan's tribal areas, a senior U.S. administration official announced on Friday.
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