Striking Iran’s Middle East surrogates: Hizballah in Lebanon and the Palestinian Hamas in the Gaza Strip. is what Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak will discuss during his upcoming trip to Washington. Barak’s principal argument is, that attacking Iran first - would expose Israel to the risk of three inflamed borders and the need to fight Syria, Hizballah and Hamas as well as Iran. And thus it would make more sense to first disable Hizballah and Hamas.One of the cons posed by American military chiefs was that an attack on Hizballah might invoke Iran’s commitment to back its proxy by unleashing long-range missiles against the Jewish state, so dragging the entire region into war. Whereby Barak replied, that no one knows for sure that Tehran really will rush to the aid of its Lebanese Shiite proxy.
Israel’s strategists are also, playing down the damage Iranian long-range missiles can inflict on Israel as manageable, whereas a wholesale Iranian-Hizballah-Hamas onslaught would put Israel’s back against the wall.
With regard to Syria’s role in the conflict, the Israeli defense minister will hold up Israel’s key strategic goal, as promoted by prime minister Olmert, to join the American-French effort to break up the Iranian-Syrian-Hizballah-Hamas axis.
Barak and Olmert do not expect Assad to go to war on behalf of the Lebanese Shiites when he even refrained from hitting back for Israel’s attack on Syria’s nuclear reactor.
However, should this scenario not pan out, and Bashar Assad does opt for war, then Israel will have to contend with this threat too. Thus yesterday, CIA director Michael Hayden cold-shouldered Israel in a conversation he had (July 8), with Bloomberg staffers in New York.
Hayden pointed out that Hizballah may not be willing to attack American interests and provoke a global fight in retaliation for a U.S. or Israeli strike on Israel. According to Hayden the costs of an attack on US interests "are different than Hizballah operating against Israel.''
Hinting at an quiet understandings US negotiators have reached with Tehran on an oil price ceiling around 150 USD a barrel with Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, Hayden stressed: “If Iran was attacked and pressured Hizballah to retaliate, the Shiite group may be especially reluctant to disrupt international oil supplies for fear of triggering a backlash.” Hizballah would need to weigh whether any action it took against the U.S. would involve it in a war,” the CIA Director went on to say.
Apparently giving Israel a cold shoulder, the inference from his omission of Israel and its interests, traditionally included in such American litanies, was that to hit Israel was okay.
Worldwide Outlook Today
There is an odd quiet globally. Tensions between Russia and the Czechs or Georgians have mounted, but nothing like they could have. The Chinese are tense but managing the run-up to the Olympics and the oil price rise as well as can be expected. Nothing appears to be coming apart at the seams. There are these periods occasionally, but they are usually followed by widespread disruptions and crises. Therefore, this is the time to focus on the quiet, looking to detect the disruptions.
- For example, Oil prices remain at the top of the list. We don’t know what they will do, but we do know they are continuing to pressure the global economy. And the question is who will crack first and how.
- The U.S.-Iranian confrontation is not really about nuclear weapons but about Iraq, and that the chances of war are actually quite low even though we have seen an increase in war scares this week. However, nuclear talks are progressing against the backdrop of these war threats, which indicates that there has been progress. Currently both sides seem to be lowering the temperature.
- Russia represents a similar opportunity. The United States was/is on a collision course with Russia and that the Russians have fomented a crisis with Georgia in retaliation for Kosovo. That appears to be the course things took; the Europeans made their point in Kosovo and the Russians have made their point in Georgia. This balance could be disrupted by the United States getting its ballistic missile defense station in Poland and/or radars in the Czech Republic, though. So now is the time to consider whether the Russians might be on a different path than we might think. As with U.S.-Iran relations, now is the time to use the lull to challenge our own assumptions.
- The same goes with Israel and Syria. Indications are as suggested, that there will be a deal. It is almost certain that Hezbollah or some Palestinian group will carry out some attacks in Israel in an attempt to disrupt the deal. That’s been common practice. Is it possible for an act such as this to blow the discussions out of the water? Could Israel or Syria decide to follow another course?
An alternative point of view is, that where the Assad regime is succumbing to Western demands to end its sponsorship of the most radical Palestinian groups for the sake of building fences with the West and Israel-- Assad has also proved to be one of the most slippery politicians of his day. He never tires of gambits that will give him a foot in two worlds and is perfectly capable of moves to appease the West, while secretly maintaining his close ties with Tehran and terrorists.
- China under pressure? China is not a place where a bottoms-up review is required now. The Chinese are battening down the hatches for the Olympics. Movement in and out of China has been reduced, and security measures are increasing. One theory is that the Chinese are actually worried about internal security having to do with economic problems, and are using the Olympics as a justification for cracking down and taking preventive measures. Certainly they have to be more nervous about the economic situation than they are about Olympic security. We need to watch the interplay between economic problems and increased security. We also have to be watching for political splits in the Chinese leadership because of the historical precedent and explicit signs from internal party statements and actions over the past few weeks. China needs to be under a microscope for the next 60 days.
-The situation in Afghanistan is not quieting down and neither is Pakistan. As Iraq subsides, the war in Afghanistan will be more visible. Gen. David Petraeus is now head of CENTCOM, so he is in charge of Afghanistan. We need to look for signs of his strategy for Afghanistan.
-As France’s EU presidency begins, French President Nicolas Sarkozy has outlined an ambitious set of reforms. We generally view the EU presidency as unimportant, but Sarkozy might try to do something creative. He may be able to help midwife a Syrian-Israeli deal (their leaders are in Paris this weekend) and leverage that political capital elsewhere.
-In S. America, Argentina’s attempt to tax exported foodis of interest — not just because of the move’s internal effects and because it is a case study for how high food prices tend to lead to politically related market disruptions, but also because Argentina now appears to be a net importer of natural gas. If this country — an exporter of raw commodities — cannot make itself work when it is exporting them, how fast will it fall apart once it starts importing?
Calendar EURASIA
· July 13: French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Syrian President Bashar al Assad will meet when the Syrian president arrives in Paris for the launch of the Mediterranean union.
· July 13-14: Shortly after France’s assumption of the EU presidency, French President Nicolas Sarkozy will host a meeting of Mediterranean and EU leaders to launch the Mediterranean Union. The union is an effort to strengthen EU relations with its neighbors to the south, though many EU leaders are concerned about being left out of the proposed Mediterranean union.
MIDDLE EAST/SOUTH ASIA
· July 13-14: France will host the first Mediterranean union summit in Paris. Heads of state from 27 EU member countries are to attend, as are key leaders from the Middle East, including Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Syrian President Bashar al Assad and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Talks between the Israeli and Syrian leaders are expected as part of a growing rapprochement between the two countries.
· July 15: The Iraqi parliament will vote on a draft provincial elections law.
· July 16: Iran’s Labor News Agency is set to begin publishing again after a yearlong ban.
· July 16-18: Indian Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon will meet with Bangladeshi Foreign Secretary Touhid Hossain in New Delhi regarding annual consultations.
· July 17: Lawyers for Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert are slated to cross-examine Jewish-American businessman Morris Talansky in the ongoing corruption probe against Olmert.
EAST ASIA
· July 11-31: Thai and Chinese special warfare troops will hold their second combined anti-terror training in northern Thailand’s Chiang Mai province.
· July 11-13: The Olympic Torch will be in Inner Mongolia.
· July 11-17: The president of Mozambique’s Assembly, Eduardo Joaquim Mulembwe, is slated to visit China.
· July 12: Mexican President Felipe Calderon will wrap up his four-day visit to China.
· July 12-24: A delegation from China’s National People’s Congress will begin goodwill visits to Chile, Venezuela and Costa Rica.
· July 14: China’s National Statistics Bureau will publish the country’s consumer price index for June.
· July 15-16: Montenegrin Minister of Foreign Affairs Milan Rocen will visit China.
LATIN AMERICA
· July 11-12: Petrocaribe leaders will meet in Maracaibo, Venezuela. Guatemalan President Alvaro Colom will also attend; his country joined Petrocaribe last week.
· July 18: Brazilian President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva will visit Bolivia today. He is scheduled to discuss projects which will increase cooperation and integration between his country and Bolivia.
AFRICA
· July 12: The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) said it would end its two-week cease-fire on July 12. A MEND spokesman said British interests would “suffer the consequences” in response to the United Kingdom’s pledge to support the Nigerian government in the conflict.
· July 14: The chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court will seek an arrest warrant July 14 charging Sudanese President Omar al Bashir with crimes against humanity and genocide in Darfur, according to U.N. officials.
· July 14: Leaders from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda and Rwanda will meet to discuss environmental issues in Gisenyi, Rwanada. They will focus mainly on conservation efforts in the Virungas region, where all three countries share a border.
· July 15: Guinea will start its nationwide voter registration to prepare for parliamentary elections. The date for the election has not been set yet.
· July 16: In Namibia, the Southern African Development Community Tribunal will resume the hearing of a case brought by 78 white Zimbabwean farmers. They seek to stop the compulsory acquisition of their farms for resettlement.
· July 17: Zimbabwe’s parliament, elected March 31, is scheduled to convene.
COUNTERTERRORISM/SECURITY
· July 12: Anniversary of the Battle of the Boyne in 1690. Northern Ireland Loyalists will celebrate with parades.
· July 12: Anniversary of Hezbollah’s abduction of two Israeli soldiers in 2006, which precipitated Israeli forces’ unsuccessful invasion of Lebanon.
· July 13-21: Pope Benedict XVI will visit Australia for vacation and festivities marking World Youth Day.
· July 17: Anniversary of the 2002 arrest of the founder and leader of the November 17 terrorist group by Greek police.
· July 18: Anniversary of the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Ninety-six people were killed, and Hezbollah was blamed.